California won't recover the jobs it lost during economic meltdown until at least 2014 -- but the Bay Area could recapture its losses sooner than that, a report released Wednesday suggested.
Urban centers along the coast such as the Bay Area, Los Angeles, Orange County and San Diego are poised to rebound more rapidly than California overall. The most sluggish pace of recovery is expected for inland areas such as Sacramento, the Central Valley and the Riverside-San Bernardino-Ontario region.
"This is a bifurcated recovery," said Jerry Nickelsburg, a senior economist with the UCLA Anderson Forecast, which released the report.
A jobs recovery will materialize in regions such as the Bay Area that are being bolstered by the tech rebound, along with exports and imports, the Anderson Forecast economists said.
"Coastal California, particularly the Bay Area with its technology and software industries, will lead in job growth," according to the forecast.
Areas that depend more strongly on residential construction -- such as inland regions of California -- will struggle to produce an employment revival, Nickelsburg said.
A region such as the East Bay, however, could experience an uneven pace of recovery.
The East Bay has some high-tech in places such as Fremont, Pleasanton and Livermore. It also a considerable amount of cleantech operations sprinkled through the region. The East Bay also enjoys manufacturing and distribution
Housing and financial services, which melted down during the recession, also are a big part of the East Bay economy, however. Those anchors could drag down the pace of the employment rebound in the Alameda County-Contra Costa County region.
"The East Bay is pretty interesting," Nickelsburg said. "It's kind of a mix of industries."
The biggest benefit for the East Bay could be its location near the primary recovery engines that are powered by the digital boom in Silicon Valley, San Francisco and San Mateo County.
"The spillover from high-tech in Silicon Valley will create employment opportunities in the East Bay," said Jeffrey Michael, director of the Stockton-based Business Forecasting Center at University of the Pacific.
Real estate will remain a problem for job creation in the East Bay, however.
"High tech and exports and imports somewhat offset the housing hangover," Michael said. "But the East Bay was hit as hard as anyplace else through the recession when it comes to jobs."
In contrast, things appear more solid in Santa Clara County.
"Silicon Valley is already recovering," Michael said.
The Anderson Forecast predicted that California will experience "slow growth" through the end of this year.
The forecasters also predicted:
Statewide unemployment, now at less than 12 percent, will continue to fall through the second half of 2011 and average 11.7 percent.
Job growth in 2012 will push the jobless rate down "marginally."
The unemployment rate won't reach 9.9 percent until the second quarter of 2013.
Growth in real personal income is forecast to be 1.7 percent in 2011 and 3.3 percent in 2012.
"The bifurcated recovery will be with us for some years to come," the Anderson Forecast said.
Urban centers along the coast such as the Bay Area, Los Angeles, Orange County and San Diego are poised to rebound more rapidly than California overall. The most sluggish pace of recovery is expected for inland areas such as Sacramento, the Central Valley and the Riverside-San Bernardino-Ontario region.
"This is a bifurcated recovery," said Jerry Nickelsburg, a senior economist with the UCLA Anderson Forecast, which released the report.
A jobs recovery will materialize in regions such as the Bay Area that are being bolstered by the tech rebound, along with exports and imports, the Anderson Forecast economists said.
"Coastal California, particularly the Bay Area with its technology and software industries, will lead in job growth," according to the forecast.
Areas that depend more strongly on residential construction -- such as inland regions of California -- will struggle to produce an employment revival, Nickelsburg said.
A region such as the East Bay, however, could experience an uneven pace of recovery.
The East Bay has some high-tech in places such as Fremont, Pleasanton and Livermore. It also a considerable amount of cleantech operations sprinkled through the region. The East Bay also enjoys manufacturing and distribution
Housing and financial services, which melted down during the recession, also are a big part of the East Bay economy, however. Those anchors could drag down the pace of the employment rebound in the Alameda County-Contra Costa County region.
"The East Bay is pretty interesting," Nickelsburg said. "It's kind of a mix of industries."
The biggest benefit for the East Bay could be its location near the primary recovery engines that are powered by the digital boom in Silicon Valley, San Francisco and San Mateo County.
"The spillover from high-tech in Silicon Valley will create employment opportunities in the East Bay," said Jeffrey Michael, director of the Stockton-based Business Forecasting Center at University of the Pacific.
Real estate will remain a problem for job creation in the East Bay, however.
"High tech and exports and imports somewhat offset the housing hangover," Michael said. "But the East Bay was hit as hard as anyplace else through the recession when it comes to jobs."
In contrast, things appear more solid in Santa Clara County.
"Silicon Valley is already recovering," Michael said.
The Anderson Forecast predicted that California will experience "slow growth" through the end of this year.
The forecasters also predicted:
Statewide unemployment, now at less than 12 percent, will continue to fall through the second half of 2011 and average 11.7 percent.
Job growth in 2012 will push the jobless rate down "marginally."
The unemployment rate won't reach 9.9 percent until the second quarter of 2013.
Growth in real personal income is forecast to be 1.7 percent in 2011 and 3.3 percent in 2012.
"The bifurcated recovery will be with us for some years to come," the Anderson Forecast said.
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